TAMPA, Fla. – May 8, 2008 – A top real estate economist offered shell-shocked Tampa Realtors a hint of optimism Wednesday, saying the Bay area housing market should begin to improve in the second half of the year.
Home sales and prices, which have been battered in recent months, should stabilize and then begin to rise in 2009, predicted Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
In an hour-long speech before 100 members of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors, Yun acknowledged that his observations and forecasts are often optimistic. But Yun said there are several economic indicators that point to a recovery for the national and Tampa Bay area housing markets.
“The worst conditions in the Tampa market may have already passed,” Yun said. “How strong will the recovery be? I cannot really say. I think the second half of 2008 will be better. But if I look at the long-term perspective, five years from now, comfortably, one can say home prices in this region will be 20 to 30 percent higher.”
The key to the turnaround will be to get the “fence sitters” into the housing market. Those people, who have the financial means to buy a house, perpetuate the slump “not because of the fundamentals, but because of the psychology,” he said.
In his speech, Yun cited the August 2007 collapse of the subprime mortgage industry as a positive sign. While making up just 9 percent of mortgages in the United States, subprime vehicles have been involved in 53 percent of U.S. housing foreclosures, which dragged down the housing market.
Those loan products will steadily be replaced by safer Federal Housing Administration-backed loans, Yun said.
Another seemingly daunting sign – a significant decrease in new housing starts in the Tampa Bay region – is also a good sign, reducing the glut of available homes that has held down prices.
Mortgage rates are at near historic lows, business spending is strong, and corporate profits are up, all good economic signs, he said.
“There’s a change in the mood over the last couple of weeks,” Yun said. “The first three months of the year, everyone was talking about how deep the recession would be.”
Talk of a recession is linked by many consumers with the prospect of job loss, and those consumers become hesitant to make major purchases such as a home, Yun said.
“Fortunately, we’re not in a recession, or at least not yet,” he said. “I don’t think we will go into a recession.”
Gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2008, a key measure of economic performance, was “very soft, but nonetheless positive,” Yun said. He forecasts the second quarter to be “equally soft, but not negative,” with things picking up in the third and fourth quarters.
Yun’s speech was a breath of fresh air for an industry that has been particularly hard-hit in the Tampa Bay area. Local home sales have slid from 2,810 in the first three months of 2007 to 2,079 for the same period this year, according to the local Realtors’ group. Average residential prices have slipped from $280,339 to $255,485 in the same period.
Copyright (c) 2008, Tampa Tribune, Fla., Jerome R. Stockfisch. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
BIG QUESTION: Would you rather be selling your real estate today or buying it?
When the media was hyping on the rising market values of homes in 2005 the market was already heading a downward spiral in sales. Now the media is focused on telling a terrible tale of how now is not the time to buy and the mortgage meltdown is sending prices in a further depressed real estate market.
This is your time to chuckle about what the news media is feeding to the general public about the house market since they are behind the 8-Ball again. Yes, better opportunities seem to be available everyday now that many homes are in or heading for foreclosure at this very moment in time. The market has been plagued with an abundance of non moving inventory with a pure lack of willing buyers for the past year and a half or so. With this said, smart buyers and investors who see this tremendous opportunity are the ones already making purchasing decisions today by buying properties which are being sacrificed for as little as 40 cents on the dollar the same home was selling for just 2 years ago. No, your not going to "flip that house" the next day for a unrealistic quick buck, but holding for the future will produce a nest egg you will certainly smile big about. It's where the financially better folks get financially better and the others stay or even get financially worse. As the inventory is reduced and the more investors begin competing for the bargains, they won't be bargains anymore. The moral of this story is the biggest bargains are happening at this very moment and hind site should be the story you hear from neighbor and not yourself.
I help people make smart decisions.
- Scott Barrett - Licensed Real Estate Broker Associate (Florida Luxury Realty) - Tampa Florida
EXPERIENCE ISN'T EXPENSIVE, IT'S PRICELESS...
"If you think hiring an expert is expensive - wait until you hire an amateur!"
- Red Adair (World Famous Oil Field Firefighter)
WASHINGTON - Banks squeezed by a global credit crisis have a new way to get their hands on cash so they can keep making loans to individuals and businesses.
The Federal Reserve, under pressure to take more aggressive action, unveiled a plan Wednesday designed to bring banks and their borrowers relief by offering $40-billion in emergency funds to banks next week through an auction process. Also, central banks in Europe and North America agreed to increase the amount of money they could lend to banks and to make it more readily available in an effort to ease the credit squeeze.
Fed officials said the move was an effort to improve financial markets, not a response to problems at any individual bank. Financial markets initially soared on the announcement but relinquished most of their gains by day's end. The Dow rose 41.13, or 0.31 percent, to 13,473.90, after rising as much as 271.75 in early trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 8.94, or 0.61 percent, to 1,486.59, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 18.79, or 0.71 percent, to 2,671.14.
Some questions and answers about what the Fed is doing:
Why is the Fed taking this action?
The credit crisis has unhinged Wall Street and threatens to hurt the U.S. economy, which is fighting to avoid a recession.
Why are banks having problems?
A meltdown in the housing and credit markets has made banks and other financial institutions reluctant to lend to each other, causing a cash crunch. During the credit crunch, many banks have been hoarding cash - not wanting to lend or borrow from others banks. That makes it harder and more expensive for individuals and businesses to obtain credit from banks to finance all sorts of things, such as homes, cars, school and small-business ventures.
How does the Fed's plan help?
At the heart of the Fed's plan is the creation of a new temporary facility to provide banks with at least $40-billion in emergency loans. The Fed is trying to shore up the finances of the banking system.
How will that help individuals and businesses?
If banks have adequate cash on hand, they may be more likely to make loans to people and businesses that need them. The free flow of credit is the economy's lifeblood. It allows people to make big-ticket purchases and businesses to build and expand.
How does the core of the plan work?
The Fed's facility will lend $40-billion in emergency funds to banks through two auctions next week: Monday and Thursday. Banks needing cash and that are judged to be in "generally sound financial condition" by their local Federal Reserve bank can participate in the auction. Banks place bids to get a slice of the money.
The loans are expected to be at rates lower than the 4.75 percent the Fed currently charges banks for direct loans through its discount window. To secure the short-term, 28-day loans, banks can pledge a broad variety of collateral. It is the same type of collateral - such as corporate bonds, real estate loans, agricultural loans and collateralized mortgage obligations - allowed if the bank borrowed through the discount window.
Two more auctions are scheduled on Jan. 14 and Jan. 28.
What else is in the Fed plan?
The Fed also set up lines of credit with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank that could be used for additional resources. It said that this temporary arrangement would supply up to $20-billion in reserves to the Europeans' central bank and up to $4-billion to the Swiss central bank.
The Fed's announcement Wednesday was part of a globally coordinated response involving the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.
Associated Press
Published December 13, 2007
London-base global investment company LaSalle Investment Management told clients that the outlook for global real estate is strong, despite recent turbulence in the U.S. market and debt markets in general. LaSalle expects strong returns from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region in 2008 as demand outstrips the supply of housing and rentals, and drives up prices. In the U.S., LaSalle plans to invest more money in health care facilities, senior housing and student housing. But Jacques Gordon, global head of research and strategy, said the remainder of the U.S. market “should return to normalcy in 2008.”
Source: Dow Jones International News (11/3/2007)
WASHINGTON – Dec. 11, 2007 – Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. “The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” he says. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.”
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive monthly gain, but still 18.4 percent below the October 2006 index of 106.8. “The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007,” Yun says.
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 16.0 percent in October to 80.6 but is 11.1 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index rose 8.4 percent to 87.3 but is 16.9 percent lower than October 2006. The index in the Midwest slipped 1.4 percent in October to 85.5 and is 11.7 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index dropped 7.8 percent in October to 91.6 and is 25.3 percent below October 2006.
“The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo loans,” Yun says. “Lawmakers need to understand that raising the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans will markedly improve mortgage availability.”
Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in 2008.
“Home price growth in the vast affordable midsection of America will help raise the national median existing-home price slightly in 2008. I then expect price appreciation to return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one or two percentage points above the rate of inflation,” Yun says.
“Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price this year, it’s important to keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the metro areas in the U.S. are showing price increases,” he said. “The apparent disparity results from fewer sales in high-cost markets, so a change in the mix of sales is dragging down the national median home price.”
Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. “We can’t emphasis enough how much local conditions vary, even within a given area, so it’s important for consumers to make decisions based on local market conditions.”
New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; no sustained improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because builders have correctly adjusted production, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably total 1.36 million this year and 1.16 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year. The median new-home price is projected to drop 3.0 percent to $239,100 for 2007, and then decline another 0.2 percent to $236,600 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to rise slowly to the 6.4 percent range by the end of 2008, with additional cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest rates.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate last year; GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.4 percent in 2008.
The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent for 2007, unchanged from last year, but rise to 5.0 percent in 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 2.8 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2008, down from 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 3.1 percent this year, the same as in 2006, and then grow 2.2 percent next year.
© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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Gulf Harbor Sea Forest, New Port Richey - We invite everyone to visit our open house at 4731 Sanctuary Drive on March 30 from 4:30 AM to 6:30 AM.
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Gulf Harbors, New Port Richey - Announcing a price reduction on 5245 West Shore Drive, a 3,214 sq. ft., 3 bath, 4 bdrm 3 story "Estate". Now 
MLS® #7262992 $1,750,000 - Paradise Gulffront Estate.
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Florida homeowners have all eyes and ears on what Florida’s senate is going to do that will relieve Florida homeowner’s insurance rate hikes. Our new elected governor Charlie Crist promised a special session right after being put into office to address this issue. They are serious about getting to a real solution during their special meeting on January 16th in Tallahassee. The most perceived proposal will be the state accepting the burden of the private insurers of a cap amount ($40 billion was the suggested cap). This would allow private insurers to reduce there rates for insurance by one third. They will raise money for this fund by bonds, assessments, and sales tax. The senate does view this as concerning liability for the tax payers. Nothing thus far has been finalized proposals from both Houses and the Senate is scheduled to reach the chambers’ floors by Tuesday following the special session. Some of the other proposed ideas where as follows:
- Allowing insurers to more easily buy reinsurance from the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (CAT Fund).
- Forcing auto insurers that write property insurance in other states to also write property policies in Florida.
- Allowing Citizens to offer full coverage in its high risk account, where it is now allowed to write only the wind policies.
- Allowing Citizens rates to be competitive with the private market and freezing Citizens rates as of Dec. 31, 2006.
In general, Floridians are pleased to see the whole insurance issue being addressed and are hopeful that a solution will be put into place soon.
Portions of this article courtesy of St. Petersburg Times.
St. Pete Beach - Announcing this Luxury Florida Lifestyle Estate at 4565 Plaza Way, a 6,069 sq. ft., 4 bath, 3 bdrm 3 story. Now MLS® #7247119 Asking $2,499,000 - Luxury Florida Lifestyle.
Click Here To Visit The Exclusive Website
We have recently enhanced the look and features of our property pages on the GuideToFloridaHomes.com Florida Home Search website.
Among the changes are the simple and improved layout with navigation to the left. New enhancements include improvements to Virtual Tours, Requesting More Info (NEW), Mortgage Calculator, Show Map, Email Listing, Schedule A Showing (NEW), and View Listing Brochure. Another feature is neighborhood demographics and information linked to each independent property on the website. Now even the owner of the property can now post their own details and information about their property that is visible to those who search the website. To visit our 10,000 featured Florida properties click here.
Other improvements and additions are 25 FREE reports for assisting both buyers and sellers. In these reports you'll get tremendous information on making the buying or selling experience the very best it can be. New banners to provide visitors great information such as the 25 FREE reports, setup of automatic email notification of new properties that meet a criteria they request, link to www.PresentMarketValue.com where sellers can obtain a market value of any Florida property, and a link into our comprehensive database of now over 10,000 of the best Florida homes and properties for sale.
If you haven't visited our premier Florida Home Search website recently, now is the time www.GuideToFloridaHomes.com. "Where the World Shops Florida Real Estate"
On Tuesday December 5
th 2006 Citizens Insurance opened a website
http://www.citizensforabettercitizens.com/ by the State Office of Insurance Regulations for input from the policy holders. Of course, the majority of the visitors who are using the site are complaining about the double and triple rate hikes that have occurred in the recent couple of years according to reports published. Others illustrated that the company is inefficient in customer service. The website states "All suggestions received will be forwarded to Citizens staff for review and consideration." Citizens Insurance was created by the Florida legislator to be a source of last resort for property owners in Florida. Since July of 2006, reports indicate that Citizens Insurance carrier has surpassed State Farm as the largest carrier of homeowner's insurance policies statewide. To learn more about Citizens Insurance, visit
http://www.citizensfla.com/ .
Here our goal is to set some very quick and basic things to consider for home sellers when decorating for the holiday season. These are just simple things that we have determined through our experiences and reading other related articles.
1. Consider NOT using overt religious decorations and symbols that perhaps may NOT be well perceived by potential buyers.
2. Keep it simpler. Too much decorating will clutter the home and reduce the feeling of spaciousness and the visualization of the buyers own belongings.
3. DO use scents that satisfy most, such as evergreen, spiced cider, and cinnamon can create the ultimate aromatic setting for selling a home during the holidays.
Remember you need to satisfy your personal holiday season, but keep the focus of capturing the right buyer for your home. Buyers need to remember the homes features and not the holiday décor.
- - Scott Barrett
- - Florida Luxury Realty TEAM
This post is following an article we read in the St. Petersburg Times Newspaper on Sunday November 19, 2006. It tells a true story about the 'REAL' condition of our REAL ESTATE marketplace today. In summary, it illustrates that home sale prices statistically haven't suffered drops in value, but then it further goes into more depth to say that with-in the few homes that have sold where there were high-end deals that are skewing the REAL REALITY of what is happening to the market prices. The volume of properties available today in the Tampa Bay region is at an astronomically high number and on the other side the true numbers of actual real buyers is exceptionally scarce. Among many of the homes on the market today many are investor and buyer purchased properties using affordable creative financing during the boom days of 2004 and 2005 and the sellers can't even find lookers at a break even point. This sends a signal that our near future in this market will include numerous homes and properties that are already or will soon be lender owned properties, since foreclosure is inevitable for many of the homes on the market today. Without the need of a crystal ball, sellers who are serious about selling or have a true need to sell their homes should view this realistically. Our real estate marketplace is setting on a time bomb of near future potential drastic reductions of prices. The online news article also links to a St. Petersburg Times interactive online map, where visitors can click on a location to find the value trend on their neighborhoods.
Link To Article
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/11/18/Tampabay/Bay_s_home_boom_sudde.shtml
Link To Map
http://sptimes.com/2006/webspecials06/home-prices/map.shtml
As always, we welcome your comments regarding this post.
We attended the 2006 NAR Conference in New Orleans for great reasons. Since neither of us had ever been to New Orleans made it even a much more rewarding time for us. In New Orleans and visiting the conference we gathered a vast amount of new technology and knowledge to benefit our TEAM Members and our dedicated clients by attending the many sessions and the exhibits. Outside the main conference we provided a helping hand to the City and participated in cleaning up and decorating the City Park for the holiday festivities. The amount of need was overwhelming, since the park is one by three miles in size. The park has amazing assortment of displays, a children's amusement rides, gardens of lavish landscaping, and even a nursery where the sale of plants earn finances for keeping the park running. According the park administrator, the park once employed 300 employees, but is currently only employed by 30. A large group of helpful REALTORS pitched a helping hand in all needed areas and the difference was notable by the departure time. In addition, since we had never experienced New Orleans, we obviously explored the hot spots such as Bourbon Street where the NAR threw a late Saturday evening event call NARdiGRAS. We also took a carriage tour of the city area, a night time dinner cruise on one of the River Boats, and ate plenty of the authentic New Orleans cuisine. At the end of our enjoyable visit we wondered off and created our own tour of the Ninth Ward and New Orleans East, both of which were the most devastated areas suffered from the Katrina Disaster. It was truly a touching tour and it left us with some heart felt compassion for those who lived and past from this horrific storm. It's been fourteen months since Katrina stormed through New Orleans and the devastation is still everywhere. We have included photos of our visit to New Orleans to share with the World. Our time served as educational, enjoyable, and helpful as we hope that New Orleans will be more than it was ever before in the coming months. New Orleans is definitely on our places to visit again list.
We are a rapidly expanding TEAM of all licensed REALTORS brokered by Florida Luxury Realty. The Florida Luxury Team in about 18 months is now among the TOP 5% PRODUCERS in the West Central Florida area of all REALTORS who are members of the West Pasco Board of Realtors according to the privately conducted reporter known as the Kenst Report. At this time, the TEAM consists of 5 full-time dedicated REALTORS. Based on the latest innovative technology for REAL ESTATE and a new combination of Brokerage concepts, soon the TEAM will blossom into many additional TEAM members and additional services for our dedicated client base that rely on our services to be aggressive with-in the marketplace, uphold the highest level of professionalism, and to give sound advise that sustains the greatest financial outcome. We send our appreciation to our clients; past, present, and future for entrusting us to handle the business aspect of their most valuable asset.